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the psychological hurdle is simply enormous.  the more rigorous the academic training of the analysts in research methodology, the more difficult it may be for them to come to a judgment on the basis of information which is almost certainly inadequate, highly conflicting, subject to varying interpretation and likely to be modified or even refuted by new information tomorrow.

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contradictions and uncertainties are the mark of every true warning problem.

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Certainly, warning will always be a difficult process, calling for the most expert and imaginative analysis.  Better warning is dependent not only on the collection of more and better data and advanced computers to process it, but above all on the training of people.  There is a need for the continuing education of intelligence analysts, their supervisors and policy-makers in warning intelligence, and the academic community can do much to help.

Grabo - Warning Intelligence
Intelligence Profession Series #4
The Association of Former Intelligence Officers

1. briannevilleoneill posted this